“As a very important source of strength and security, cherish public credit. One method of preserving it is to use it as sparingly as possible: avoiding occasions of expence by cultivating peace, but remembering also that timely disbursements to prepare for danger frequently prevent much greater disbursements to repel it; avoiding likewise the accumulation of [...]

Markets in November were buffeted early on by the failure of a major futures broker and continuing stresses in Europe, but ended the month with a flourish as central banks worldwide, led by the US Fed, agreed to lower the cost and extend the maturities of US dollar loans to European borrowers. Overall, US stocks [...]

Risk markets snapped back in October, with the S&P 500 up an astounding 11%. Bonds were up slightly, with the Barclays Aggregate Index rising 1%. Commodities and gold recovered as the US Dollar weakened, with the DJ UBS Commodities Index up 7%, and gold rising 6%. The signs are all around that this is a [...]

Volatility was the byline for the month just ended. Investors seemed to pivot on a dime and embrace the view that the world economy is slowing sharply. Stock markets and commodities sold off hard, with the S&P 500 shedding 7%, and the DJ-UBS Commodity Index off by almost 15%. Gold was knocked back by 11%, [...]

Volatility returned to the markets with a vengeance in August. The S&P 500 declined 5.7%, as fears of slowing economic growth and earnings took hold. The sell-off was not limited to the U.S., as foreign markets also swooned. Europe, in particular, was crushed, with the German DAX off 19% in August, and down some 30% [...]

The month of July was a tenuous one for investors, as the ongoing debt problems in Europe were swiftly eclipsed by concerns about the U.S. debt ceiling, leaving everyone nervous about a potential default and possible credit downgrade of U.S. Treasury securities. The S&P 500 declined 2.1%, bonds were up 1.40%, and commodities advanced by [...]

April was a friendly month for investors, especially of the precious metals variety. Stocks rose by 2.9% (S&P 500), with bonds up 1.3% (Barclays Aggregate Bond Index). Gold, however, rose by 8.9%, driven by uncertainty about the path of the U.S. Dollar and budget reform, and the increasingly unsettled Middle East situation. Oil and gasoline [...]

Just when markets were getting used to the idea of increased risks from the Middle East, Mother Nature took center stage in March with the devastating Japanese earthquake and tsunami. Stock markets reacted with swift declines, and equally swift recoveries, ending up flat for the month, as were bonds. Gold was up 1.6%, with oil [...]