Stocks finished April with a slight decline of -0.7% after rallying 2.25% on the last 5 days of the month. Bonds, which are not highly correlated to stocks, returned 0.9%. Developed international equities continued to grapple with debt issues during the month, declining -2.1%. Gold was flat and has underperformed equities year to date, but [...]

Our belated publication this month has more to do with tax season than lack of market moving events. Markets in early March saw a big adjustment as the bond market sold off hard on the back of ebullience from continued strong stock returns and a renewed “risk on” mentality by investors. We used the sell [...]

Since we published our year-end review “Pernicious Conditions” last month, markets have embraced the “risk-on” trading mentality to drive share prices higher. The S&P 500 advanced 4.3% in February, for a year to date (YTD) gain of 9%. Bonds were flat in February, and are slightly positive YTD at .9% (Barclays Aggregate Bond Index). Gold [...]

“As a very important source of strength and security, cherish public credit. One method of preserving it is to use it as sparingly as possible: avoiding occasions of expence by cultivating peace, but remembering also that timely disbursements to prepare for danger frequently prevent much greater disbursements to repel it; avoiding likewise the accumulation of [...]

Markets in November were buffeted early on by the failure of a major futures broker and continuing stresses in Europe, but ended the month with a flourish as central banks worldwide, led by the US Fed, agreed to lower the cost and extend the maturities of US dollar loans to European borrowers. Overall, US stocks [...]

Risk markets snapped back in October, with the S&P 500 up an astounding 11%. Bonds were up slightly, with the Barclays Aggregate Index rising 1%. Commodities and gold recovered as the US Dollar weakened, with the DJ UBS Commodities Index up 7%, and gold rising 6%. The signs are all around that this is a [...]

Volatility was the byline for the month just ended. Investors seemed to pivot on a dime and embrace the view that the world economy is slowing sharply. Stock markets and commodities sold off hard, with the S&P 500 shedding 7%, and the DJ-UBS Commodity Index off by almost 15%. Gold was knocked back by 11%, [...]

Volatility returned to the markets with a vengeance in August. The S&P 500 declined 5.7%, as fears of slowing economic growth and earnings took hold. The sell-off was not limited to the U.S., as foreign markets also swooned. Europe, in particular, was crushed, with the German DAX off 19% in August, and down some 30% [...]